Outcome · Loss ratio
The risk that hurt the book was inside appetite when it was written. Appetite just was not in the room.
Accumulation state lives in a portfolio report that refreshes weekly. The decision that adds to the accumulation happens in seconds, on a desk, without it. By the time the report catches up, the exposure is bound and the conversation is about remediation.
The one metric
No pilot has run, so the slot stays empty. It will be calibrated against the first pilot cohort over a full development period, because a loss ratio quoted before the claims have developed is a guess wearing a decimal point.
The one mechanism: appetite arrives as a constraint, not as a report
Live portfolio accumulation state is injected as a hard constraint on the individual risk, inside the decision moment rather than in a report published after it (UC016).
Per-location hazard is scored while the quote is being made, and that run is logged into the decision it justified rather than kept in a separate modelling artefact (UC013).
Where the constraint and the risk disagree, the case is argued by seats working from different evidence and ruled on by a named chair — so a declined risk has a reason somebody signed, and an accepted one has a reason too (UC021).
[O]SOV/services/nexus-disaster-engine/src/{lib.rs,sims/,feeds/}
[O]PC/src/routes/rooms.routes.ts
Governed Geospatial CAT Simulation
Simulation runs inside the decision moment and never contaminates live state — every simulated value is quarantined, marked, and reversible in one transaction.
designed, not built(designed, not built)The Chaired Deliberation Chamber
Versioned expert personas argue the case from different angles — including one seat whose only job is to attack the conclusion — and a named human chair rules, at a durable waitpoint.
shipped(shipped)The one honest bound
WHAT THIS DOES NOT DO YET
- The catastrophe financial chain — the exposure object, vulnerability and damage curves, deductible and limit application, exceedance-probability curves and any stochastic event catalogue. What exists is peril physics and the analytics shell, not a catastrophe model.
- The UNO→simulator dispatch seam. The simulator is deployed and the orchestrator is deployed; the executor that lets one drive the other does not yet do so.
Read plainly, because this is the largest gap on this site: the accumulation state that would make this metric move is a catastrophe financial chain, and it is not built. What runs today is peril physics and the analytics shell around it. Anyone selling you a loss ratio improvement on that basis is selling you a plan, and this page is not going to be the place that does it.
REFUSED
OFFLINE_NO_COMPUTE
When the accumulation state cannot be computed, the risk is not scored “within appetite” by default. The decision refuses and names the input it could not reach.
A constraint that silently disappears when its input is unavailable is worse than no constraint, because the file afterwards looks identical either way. Refusing leaves a different record from complying, which is the whole point.
Where you would start
The part of this you can run today is the deliberation, not the catastrophe financials: a chaired room on the risks your own appetite rules already flag, with the reasoning recorded. That is a smaller claim than the metric above, and it is the one we can stand behind now.