Outcome · Catastrophe readiness
The storm is over the book by Tuesday. The decisions it forced are still being argued about on Thursday.
A live event compresses a month of decisions into two days: moratorium or not, surge staffing or not, cede notice or not. Each one is defensible on the day and hard to defend a year later, because nothing recorded what was known at the moment it was taken.
The one metric
No event has been run through this path in production, so the slot is empty. It will be calibrated on the first live event in the first pilot season, and until then treat any timing figure for this outcome — ours or anyone else’s — as a design target.
The one mechanism: the actual storm, against the actual book, quarantined
Peril simulators and live feeds re-run the unfolding event against the portfolio, per tick, rather than against a scenario chosen last quarter (UC051).
Every simulated value is quarantined: it is marked wherever it renders, it can never reach a certificate or an export without the marker travelling with it, and it is reversible in one transaction. Simulation runs inside the decision moment without contaminating live state (UC059).
What the event room proposes — a moratorium, surge staffing, a cede notice — is cross-model checked and gated before it takes effect, and the proposal, the check and the ruling land in the same thread (UC052).
Feeds are treated as observations, never as settlement indexes. That distinction is on the page because it is the one that decides whether a parametric product is a product or a dispute.
[O]SOV/services/nexus-disaster-engine/src/{lib.rs,sims/,feeds/}
[O]SOV/services/nexus-sim-schema/src/lib.rs
Governed Geospatial CAT Simulation
Simulation runs inside the decision moment and never contaminates live state — every simulated value is quarantined, marked, and reversible in one transaction.
designed, not built(designed, not built)The one honest bound
WHAT THIS DOES NOT DO YET
- The catastrophe financial chain — the exposure object, vulnerability and damage curves, deductible and limit application, exceedance-probability curves and any stochastic event catalogue. What exists is peril physics and the analytics shell, not a catastrophe model.
- The UNO→simulator dispatch seam. The simulator is deployed and the orchestrator is deployed; the executor that lets one drive the other does not yet do so.
Read plainly: the engines and the feeds are deployed, and the chain that turns a simulated hazard into a financial impact on your book is not. Until it is built, this path tells you where the event is going and what is exposed to it — not what it will cost. Calling that a catastrophe model would be the single easiest thing to say on this site and the fastest way to lose a technical audience.
REFUSED
OFFLINE_NO_COMPUTE
When a feed is dead, the run that depends on it declares its staleness and the dependent decisions are flagged. Yesterday’s value is not quietly served as today’s.
During an event, the difference between stale and fresh is the whole decision. A feed that fails silently produces a confident answer about a storm that has already moved, and it produces it at exactly the moment nobody has time to check.
What you can run before the season
You can rehearse the governed path itself — the event room, the gate and the record — on a historical event, and see exactly which decisions would have carried evidence and which would not. That is a rehearsal of the decision process, not a loss estimate, and on this page the difference matters.